Mixed Methods to increase certainty about catchment and coastal flood risks

Written by peter@uwcs.com.au

October 20, 2024

Utilising mixed methods of defining joint probability of catchment and coastal flooding to increase certainty and utility of flood risk analysis

Peter J Coombes and Robert Swan presenting at the Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium HWRS2024 on Tuesday 19 November 2022 at 3:30 pm. We explore the utility of using mixed methods to understand the risk of joint catchment and coastal flooding.

Mixed methods were utilised to investigate the joint probability of catchment and coastal flooding in Melbourne near Port Phillip Bay in Victoria. We reveal consistency between Monte Carlo analysis of observed data, the Design Variable Method, statistical theory and relevant research publications in defining joint probability. It was found that 1% AEP peak flows in catchments coincides with a 100% AEP peak storm tides for the Moonee Ponds Creek catchment.

The Monte Carlo simulations provided robust information about joint probability of catchment and coastal processes near the coastal interface. The Design Variable Method provided similar and complementary information about joint probability that accounts for the hydraulics of infrastructure and waterways, and distance from the coast. Both methods can be employed to understand the impact of climate change on joint probability of coastal and catchment flooding. Mixed methods can overcome the limitations of the individual approaches.

Monte Carlo analysis of the joint probability of catchment and coastal flooding

About
Dr Peter Coombes

Dr Coombes has spent more than 30 years dedicated to the development of systems understanding of the urban, rural and natural water cycles with a view to finding optimum solutions for the sustainable use of ecosystem services, provision of infrastructure and urban planning.

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